Seminar Series
10/27/2017 | 1-2 pm | 310 Lloyd-Ricks-Watson

Charles Sims,  The University of Tennessee Knoxville
Hurry up or wait: The effect of climate change and variability on the timing of private adaptation

Climate variability makes the future benefits of adaptation uncertain. When adaptation comes in the form of discrete investments that are difficult to adjust, this uncertainty creates an economic value (an option value) to delaying adaptation to collect more information. This option value suggests adaptation will be slower than predicted by benefit-cost analysis. However, it is unclear how increases in climate variability influence this adaptation option value. Addressing this knowledge gap becomes critically important since climate change in many areas will be characterized by temperature and precipitation that is more variable than historic conditions. This study uses down-scaled results from four different global circulation models and two different emission scenarios to determine how climate trends and variability influence an adaptation option value. Using water-saving irrigation investments in California's Sacramento Valley as an example, results indicate that climate variability is an important predictor of private adaptation uptake but the influence of climate variability on adaptation shifts as the climate changes.

11/3/2017 | 1-2 pm | 310 Lloyd-Ricks-Watson

Ariana Torres,  Purdue University
Modeling the decision-making processes of specialty crop farmers

Using data from an online survey of specialty crop growers, I investigate the decision-making processes involved in the organic certification program. First, accounting for endogenously determined decisions, a bivariate probit was used to investigate how the choice of market channels impact the farmer's decision to become organic certified. Second, a robust model was used to understand the drivers of organic decertification. The presentation also provides insights regarding the organic certification barriers.

11/10/2017 | 12-1 pm | 310 Lloyd-Ricks-Watson

Jeremy Clay and Jim Mitchell,  Mississippi State University

11/17/2017 | 12-1 pm | 310 Lloyd-Ricks-Watson

Seong Yun,  Mississippi State University
Human behavior data reveals that population growth rates of US scallops change with sea surface temperature

with Brian Reed (Stanford University), Malin L. Pinsky (Rutgers University), and Eli P. Fenichel (Yale University) Society has entered a data age, and human actions increasingly leave a long data trail. These data cover broad spatial and temporal scales that could be particularly useful for understanding global change. However, human-environment feedbacks create an analytical challenge that must be solved before these data can be used effectively. We adapt econometric tools designed to study human actions to analyze the effects of sea surface temperature changes on population growth rates in the most valuable commercial fishery in US Atlantic waters, the Atlantic scallop. Using 221,641 U.S. commercial vessel trip reports from 1996 to 2014, we find that warming seas increased intrinsic population growth rates in northern regions, decreased intrinsic growth rates in southern regions, and influenced the scallop carrying capacity. Our results show that the immense trail of data on human behavior can be harnessed to understand the ecological impacts of climate change with low additional research costs.